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  • Off Base, Part 2: The View from the CBO Baseline
    Release of the CBO Baseline is an annual ritual required by federal budget policy, pursuant to which the Congressional Budget Office projects spending on certain programs ten years into the unknowable future. CBO released its February 2026 baseline ahead of schedule, providing a new look at agricultural policy after enactment of major changes in the […]
  • Projected Incomes on Owned vs Rented Farmland for 2026
    Projections in the latest Illinois Crop Budgets suggest negative returns on cash rented farmland for the 2026 crop year (see farmdoc daily article from January 13, 2026).  This article compares…

Agriculture News

MISSISSIPPI RIVER BACK OPEN FOR BARGE TRAFFIC –

Good news: Barge traffic is moving again along the Mississippi River. The waterway was shut down on March 15 because of high water and it’s been a long, slow descent ever since. Many Mississippi River reporting stations have fallen below flood stage, and attention now shifts to responding to flood damage. For the navigation system, it means playing catch-up after the long shut down. (FarmWeekNow)

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EXTREME WEATHER IS SHAKING UP AFRICA’S CORN TRADE –

At least three African nations will need to import more corn this year after extreme weather from cyclones to drought devastated crops, sparking some unusual trade flows. Corn is a staple grain across much of sub-Saharan Africa, where it’s milled and cooked with water to form a porridge or stiff dough. Zimbabwe, Mozambique and Kenya are all expected to see imports surge this season to offset dwindling harvests. That may spur neighboring Tanzania to export a record amount, and some grain may also be sourced outside the continent. (Bloomberg)

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SOYBEANS MAY BE THE NEXT MARKET TO SURGE AS RAIN DRAGS ON –

Corn prices have been on an epic run. Now, soybeans could soon be catching up. USDA will update its plantings estimate Thursday, but analysts and traders are already concerned the agency’s numbers will be too high and not fully reflect the impact of the deluge. “Most people would suggest this survey is a little dated,” said Rich Nelson, chief strategist at Allendale Inc. In the weeks and months ahead, the agency likely will have to take down estimates both for U.S. soy acreage and yield to reflect major planting delays, Nelson said. That could boost soybeans prices that lagged behind

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CHINA, U.S. TRADE OFFICIALS TALK AHEAD OF TRUMP-XI MEETING –

Chinese Vice Premier Liu He held a phone conversation with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, China’s Ministry of Commerce said in a statement posted to its website Tuesday. The Chinese and U.S. officials exchanged opinions on trade in accordance with the instructions of the two countries’ heads of state, and agreed to maintain communications, the statement said. Trump and Xi are expected to meet on the second day of the Friday-Saturday Group of 20 summit in Japan, the first face-to-face meeting for the leaders since trade talks broke off in May. (Reuters)  

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BUSTOS PUSHING FOR FEDERAL DISASTER DECLARATION

U.S. Rep. Cheri Bustos urged U.S. Ag Secretary Sonny Perdue to issue a federal disaster declaration for areas of Illinois’ 17th congressional district. “Our region is facing unprecedented weather conditions – the likes of which our farmers and producers have never seen in their lives,” said Bustos, D-East Moline. “Flooded fields are preventing farmers from getting crops in the ground this season and it’s clear they are in need of assistance. I’ll do everything in my power to provide producers with the tools they need to overcome these difficult times.” (FarmWeekNow)

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A CLIMATE SCIENCE DROUGHT AT USDA

Scores of scientists within the USDA’s Agricultural Research Service are continuing to churn out studies that carry warnings about the wide-ranging effects of climate change, but there’s been a dramatic drop-off in communicating these findings to the public, according to a recent Politico investigation. It finds that the Trump administration has refused to publicize dozens of government-funded studies that carry warnings about the effects of climate change. (Politico)  

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