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  • Off Base, Part 2: The View from the CBO Baseline
    Release of the CBO Baseline is an annual ritual required by federal budget policy, pursuant to which the Congressional Budget Office projects spending on certain programs ten years into the unknowable future. CBO released its February 2026 baseline ahead of schedule, providing a new look at agricultural policy after enactment of major changes in the […]
  • Projected Incomes on Owned vs Rented Farmland for 2026
    Projections in the latest Illinois Crop Budgets suggest negative returns on cash rented farmland for the 2026 crop year (see farmdoc daily article from January 13, 2026).  This article compares…

Agriculture News

REPORT FINDS ILLINOIS’ ROADS DEADLIER IN RURAL AREAS

Illinois residents in rural areas are more likely to die in car crashes than their more urban counterparts, according to an analysis of federal data. The Reason Foundation analyzed the vehicle fatality rate per 100 million vehicle miles traveled from 2016 federal data. In Illinois, it found a rate of 1.06 fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles traveled in rural areas. In urban areas, the rate was 0.72 fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles traveled. While that’s a lower rate, Illinois’ urban fatality rate was in the middle of the pack nationally, but the state’s rural fatality rate was the

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PRECIPITATION LEVELS VARY ACROSS ILLINOIS MOVING INTO SEPTEMBER –

Variability. That’s what summarizes precipitation levels across Illinois during the month of August. The state still had a presence on the U.S Drought Monitor, while some areas, particularly between I-72 and I-64, experienced much wetter-than-average conditions. “For the six- to 10-day outlook, the entire state is in elevated probabilities for above-normal temps,” said Illinois State Climatologist Trent Ford. “There is a 70% chance of temperatures being above normal. That is a pretty high probability. The likelihood of a frost is pretty slim.” (FarmWeekNow)

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USDA RELEASES TRADE DAMAGE ESTIMATE CALCULATIONS –

USDA’s Office of the Chief Economist recently published a report on how trade damages were estimated for the 2019 Market Facilitation Program (MFP). Estimated 2019 gross trade damages for U.S. commodities affected by retaliatory tariffs from China, India, the European Union and Turkey were developed based on the trade model established in 2018. According to USDA, gross trade damages are the total amount of expected export sales lost to the retaliatory partner due to the additional tariffs. These, in turn, confirmed the commodity payment rates. View the full report here. (FarmWeekNow)

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OPTIMISM FALLS IN FARM COUNTRY, AG BAROMETER SHOWS –

In August, the latest results available from the CME Group/Purdue University-backed survey, the Ag Barometer fell to a reading of 124, down 29 points compared with a month earlier and just slightly below the June reading of 126. Weaker sentiment was fueled in part by both crop and livestock price declines that took place during late July and early August. In particular, prices for corn and soybeans fell sharply as crop conditions improved and USDA released larger than expected crop production estimates on the August Crop Production report. (Successful Farming)

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ILLINOIS FARMERS, MANUFACTURERS PUSH FOR TRADE AGREEMENTS –

Chicago’s Federal Reserve branch projects slower economic growth. Illinois’ major industries say getting trade deals in place with Canada, Mexico and Japan would be a boost for growth. Among the central bank’s measurements, total industrial product decreased as did manufacturing production. That points to slower economic growth. Illinois Manufacturers’ Association President Mark Denzler said trade deals would reverse that. “I think would provide a huge boon to the manufacturing sector, to the agricultural community and certainly we’d see it reflected in the economy because certainly we know we can sell products.” (The Center Square)

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HOW ONE FARMER IS TRYING TO SAVE LIVES –

Dr. Michael Rosmann, fourth-generation farmer in Harlan, Iowa is a resource for struggling farmers to reach out to when they need help. “They often call me at all hours of the day or night…but people sometimes want that personal connection,” said Rosmann. Between three and 12 farmers reach out to him for help every week. He’s been taking calls for years, and he says more people are reaching out now than ever before. USDA says it is working to set up the first federally funded program to help farmers in distress. Support groups, mental health training, and referrals to clinical

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